ABSTRACT
COVID-19 epidemic dynamics are driven by a complex interplay of factors including population behaviour, government interventions, new variants, vaccination campaigns and immunity from prior infections. We aimed to quantify the epidemic drivers of SARS-CoV-2 dynamics in the Dominican Republic, an upper-middle income country of 10.8 million people, and assess the impact of the vaccination campaign implemented in February 2021 in saving lives and averting hospitalisations. We used an age-structured, multi-variant transmission dynamic model to characterise epidemic drivers in the Dominican Republic and explore counterfactual scenarios around vaccination coverage and population mobility. We fit the model to reported deaths, hospital bed occupancy, ICU bed occupancy and seroprevalence data until December 2021 and simulated epidemic trajectories under different counterfactual vaccination scenarios. We estimate that vaccination averted 5040 hospital admissions (95% CrI: 4750 - 5350), 1500 ICU admissions (95% CrI: 1420 - 1590) and 544 deaths (95% CrI: 488 - 606) in the first 6 months of the campaign. We also found that early vaccination with Sinovac-CoronaVac was preferable to delayed vaccination using a product with higher efficacy. We investigated the trade-off between changes in vaccination coverage and population mobility to understand how much relaxation of social distancing measures vaccination was able to 'buy' in the later stages of a pandemic. We found that if no vaccination had occurred, an additional decrease of 10-20% in population mobility would have been required to maintain the same death and hospitalisation outcomes. We found SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in the Dominican Republic were driven by substantial accumulation of immunity during the first two years of the pandemic but that, despite this, vaccination was essential in enabling a return to pre-pandemic mobility levels without incurring considerable additional morbidity and mortality.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , DeathABSTRACT
The successful development of several COVID-19 vaccines has substantially reduced morbidity and mortality in regions of the world where the vaccines have been deployed. However, in the wake of the emergence of viral variants, able to evade vaccine induced neutralizing antibodies, real world vaccine efficacy has begun to show differences across the mRNA platforms, suggesting that subtle variation in immune responses induced by the BNT162b2 and mRNA1273 vaccines may provide differential protection. Given our emerging appreciation for the importance of additional antibody functions, beyond neutralization, here we profiled the postboost binding and functional capacity of the humoral response induced by the BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 in a cohort of hospital staff. Both vaccines induced robust humoral immune responses to WT SARS-CoV-2 and VOCs. However, differences emerged across epitopespecific responses, with higher RBD- and NTD-specific IgA, as well as functional antibodies (ADNP and ADNK) in mRNA-1273 vaccine recipients. Additionally, RBD-specific antibody depletion highlighted the different roles of non-RBD-specific antibody effector function induced across the mRNA vaccines, providing novel insights into potential differences in protective immunity generated across these vaccines in the setting of newly emerging VOCs.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Severe Acute Respiratory SyndromeABSTRACT
Identifying the extent of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection is crucial for understanding possible long-term epidemic dynamics. We analysed longitudinal PCR and serological testing data from a prospective cohort of 4411 US employees in four states between April 2020 and February 2021. We conducted a multivariable logistic regression investigating the association between baseline serological status and subsequent PCR test result in order to calculate an odds ratio for reinfection. We estimated an adjusted odds ratio of 0.09 (95% CI: 0.005 - 0.48) for reinfection, implying that the presence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies at baseline is associated with around 91% reduced odds of a subsequent PCR positive test. This suggests that primary infection with SARS-CoV-2 provides protection against reinfection in the majority of individuals, at least over a sixth month time period. We also highlight two major sources of bias and uncertainty to be considered when estimating reinfection risk, confounders and the choice of baseline time point, and show how to account for both in our analysis.
Subject(s)
COVID-19ABSTRACT
Background Seroepidemiology is an important tool to characterize the epidemiology and immunobiology of SARS-CoV-2 but many immunoassays have not been externally validated raising questions about reliability of study findings. To ensure meaningful data, particularly in a low seroprevalence population, assays need to be rigorously characterized with high specificity. Methods We evaluated two commercial (Roche Diagnostics and Epitope Diagnostics IgM/IgG) and two non-commercial (Simoa and Ragon/MGH IgG) immunoassays against 68 confirmed positive and 232 pre-pandemic negative controls. Sensitivity was stratified by time from symptom onset. The Simoa multiplex assay applied three pre-defined algorithm models to determine sample result. Results The Roche and Ragon/MGH IgG assays each registered 1/232 false positive, the primary Simoa model registered 2/232 false positives, and the Epitope registered 2/230 and 3/230 false positives for the IgG and IgM assays respectively. Sensitivity >21 days post symptom-onset was 100% for all assays except Epitope IgM, but lower and/or with greater variability between assays for samples collected 9-14 days (67-100%) and 15-21 days (69-100%) post-symptom onset. The Simoa and Epitope IgG assays demonstrated excellent sensitivity earlier in the disease course. The Roche and Ragon/MGH IgG assays were less sensitive during early disease, particularly among immunosuppressed individuals. Conclusions The Epitope IgG demonstrated good sensitivity and specificity. The Roche and Ragon/MGH IgG assays registered rare false positives with lower early sensitivity. The Simoa assay primary model had excellent sensitivity and few false positives.
Subject(s)
Hyper-IgM Immunodeficiency Syndrome, Type 1ABSTRACT
The global COVID-19 pandemic caused by SARS CoV-2 is causing both mortality/morbidity and collateral social and economic damage related to public panic and aggressive public policy measures to contain the disease worldwide.(1) The epidemic appears to have taken hold much more slowly in sub-Saharan Africa than most of the world.(2) Antibody testing to evaluate the population proportion previously infected with SARS CoV-2 has the potential to guide public policy, but has not been reported so far for sub-Saharan Africa.